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The crisis of the World Economy and the change in the balance of forces (I)

The crisis of the World Economy and the change in the balance of forces (I)


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By Ibrahim Okcuoglu

The global economic crisis that has been ongoing since 2008 showed that many things went wrong for the capital. The structures of state monopoly capitalism specifically established after the Second World War, in accordance with the conditions of the world economy of those days, are no longer working as they should and are not in the interests of monopoly capital. Furthermore, neocolonialism as part of these structures is also in deep crisis, and as the current economic crisis reveals many new colonies of yesterday today have competitive power in regional and world markets. The main objective of the construction of state monopoly capitalism after World War II was the continuation of the dominance of the western imperialist countries in world economy and politics. Today such dominance is doubtful; Emerging economies emerged, the balance of power between the imperialist countries also changed. After the First World War, the center of production of the capitalist world shifted from Europe to North America. Now it went from the US and the EU to Asia. The axis of the United States and Asia is replacing the axis of the United States and Europe that to date has played a decisive role in the world economy. In other words, the trans-Pacific axis replaces the trans-Atlantic axis.

In the period 2009/2010 the temporary and partial improvement of the world economy gave hope to the imperialist bourgeoisie that we are coming out of the crisis. When large US banks were being destroyed one by one, imperialist countries and other G-20 countries after several attempts - the G-20 summits - pushing into the background the contradictions that exist between them, and managed to form a temporary crisis management.

The objective was to bring the global economy to a controllable state, that is to say to end the crisis. They wanted to avoid the uncontrolled destabilization of the world capitalist system and the emergence of a revolutionary crisis throughout the world.

If at that time - in 2009/2010 - there was a temporary relief, it is only because of the financial incentive of gigantic proportion that is expressed in trillions of dollars. The world economy and the financial system were maintained thanks to this incentive.

The destruction of capital was temporarily stopped. But until then, the amount of capital that evaporated in the world's stock markets was already massive: before the said period of temporary improvement, the capitalization in the world stock market had fallen from 65 trillion dollars at the end of 2007 at 35 trillion dollars at the end of 2008, the "value" loss on the world's stock markets had reached 43.4 percent between October 2007 and October 2008. That is, the amount of market capitalization The world's stock markets fell from 62.57 trillion on October 31, 2007 to 25.558 trillion dollars on March 6, 2009 and the loss in the same period reached 37.01 trillion dollars, that is, a capital destruction of 59.2 percent.

To save themselves from the destruction of capital, international monopolies transferred their excess capital to the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China - now called BRICS after the participation of South Africa) and to countries such as Taiwan, Mexico, Thailand, Argentina, South Korea, Turkey, countries that are defined as "emerging markets". Indeed, as a consequence, you see some revival, and even increase, in the economy in these countries, while in most other countries, including the western imperialist countries, the economy bottomed out. The center of the crisis was the United States, Japan, and especially in Europe.

When we see the evolution from 2010 to the present, as we will show later, the situation is that the world economic crisis can be controlled but the crisis has not yet emerged.

In late 2008, the G-20 countries in order to avoid the collapse of the global financial and economic system began to pump a huge amount of capital into the system. The famous "aid packages" came to a total amount of 27 trillion dollars. At what price? At the price of a public debt with an unprecedented amount until that day. That system pumped amount inevitably led to the swelling of speculation and in June 2012 derivatives trading increased to $ 639 trillion. This amount corresponds to an amount ten times the gross world product.

The crisis management has not been able to solve the problem to be solved, it has not been able to open the exit route from the economic crisis, but rather caused the accumulation of contradictions, deepening the contradictions that arise from the development imbalance in the world economy and the question of the balance of forces: on the one hand the United States, Japan and the EU that dominated the capitalist world-economy until now, on the other hand the BRICS countries and some other "emerging" countries.

The world economy is marked by two trends that are face to face, by two different developments: on the one hand an ongoing crisis in the old capitalist countries (USA, EU, Japan), on the other hand a recovering economy and rising phase in BRICS countries, and in many "emerging" countries.


The BRICS countries have benefited more from crisis management led by the western imperialist countries and the G-20. For example, the share of these countries in gross world production increased from 8.9 percent in 2000 to 20.2 percent in 2011, a little more than double. Thus, the BRICS have been an important potential in the world economy, it has been a factor that cannot be ignored. The other side of this development is that during the same period, the OECD's share of world gross production fell from 81.2 percent to 65.9 percent.

The BRICS countries with the exception of Russia were former colonial countries. The internationalization of capital and production in these countries, their production-oriented investments has accelerated the process of their transition from being agricultural countries to being industrialized countries. Thus, these countries are not only centers of production that produce for the world market, but have also become indispensable, new and growing markets for world products, for international monopolies. The BRICS countries and other "emerging economies (countries)" have been almost a lifeline for western imperialist countries and international monopolies. They turned to those countries because of the lack of investment opportunities with a maximum amount of profit in other areas of the world.

Of course, the world economy can emerge from the crisis before these countries enter a crisis. But there is no guarantee that those countries will enter a crisis from the effect of the current crisis. The "cooling" of the economies of these countries in recent times, the slowdown in growth, the trend of recession are direct signs that the direction of evolution is towards the negative.

Many cases observed in the world economy show us that the crisis will continue for a certain period. It would be a prophecy to say how long the crisis will continue. But the situation in the different sectors, for example, the situation in the automobile sector shows that the automotive industry in Europe may come out of the crisis perhaps in 2016. This means that the destruction of constant capital in the automobile industry will continue to follow. In other words, companies will close and workers will be laid off.

There is nothing left of the measures of the 2009/2010 period when the imperialist countries and the other G-20 countries have united to influence the course of the crisis. The measures taken to protect their own capital at risk at that time is today something that is deepening in the form of cutthroat competition. That shows us the state of the automobile sector. The number of new permits issued for vehicles (in this case cars) around the world had increased in 2007 by 11.9 per cent from 59 million to 66 million. In the same period, the share of Europe fell from 27 percent to 19 percent and that of North America fell to 26 percent from 32 percent, while the share of the Asia-Pacific areas rose to 37. 25 percent percent. That means that a large number of the auto business owned by Europeans and North Americans will close, and thousands of workers will be laid off.

Of course, all the time, especially in times of crisis, a series of people wise to control and direct society make predictions about the future of the economy, about how much it will grow. For some reason the estimate presented by each of them is false but they continue with their predictions since it is their work. Growths between 3 and 3.3 percent are estimated. These shamans' evaluations of the economy hold their value for only a few months. A few months later they revise their estimate up or down.

Can not estimate the course of development of the economy? Of course you can. But in order to do so, the cyclical driving forces that truly determine the course of economic development must be properly defined. So when we look at it from this perspective we see that the central driving force that keeps the economy afloat, that makes it functional during the crisis of the capitalist world is the dynamics of debt. Capitalism has directed itself to produce through the commercialization of surplus production creating an additional demand with loans. Such a dynamic is produced by capitalism itself. The demand in the capitalist economy is quite inadequate compared to the efficiency that is the product of the same system. Therefore, in order for the system to continue working, the possible future earnings are being withdrawn under the name of credit; capitalism manages to survive by selling the future.

Debt dynamics were "nationalized" with the "aid packages" we have talked about. No State is able to incur new debt with the sizes of the years 2009/2010. You can intervene in the economy only within certain limits. The current situation shows that in the next period the crisis centers (the USA, Europe and Japan) of the world economy will continue to be in this situation, while in the countries that are not in crisis it will be seen, although in different degrees, a certain trend of "cooling", of deceleration. Instability in the core areas of the capitalist world economy, though to varying degrees, will lead to stagnation. As seen the least unstable country is China, while Europe looks especially unstable and the US oscillates between being stable and unstable.

The interrelational state of the world economy makes countries easily affected from "outside": while the US debt causes a stimulating effect on the economic situation in other countries - for example, in China - a recession in the economy in one of the three centers or an unforeseen adverse development may adversely affect the other centers. Should the US economy enter a recession, other centers will inevitably be directly affected.

It is clear that the same crisis ended the hope of ending the crisis with the measures taken by the leaders of the imperialist countries and the world economy with its current course is moving towards the level of recession. Now we are going to try to show with data what kind of course the crisis is taking in general, and what course it is likely to take in the next period.

· Ibrahim Okçuoglu is one of the most distinguished Turkish researchers and writers, especially in the field of political economy. Among his published books are: Development of Capitalism in Turkey (3 volumes), History of Uneven Development and Competition in Capitalism (5 volumes), Materialist Philosophy, Imperialist Globalization and Geopolitics, Stalin's Contribution to Philosophy, The World Crisis of Capitalism (2008 ...), Victory Issues of Socialism and the Reconstruction of Capitalism in the USSR.

CEPRID


Video: Post-Crisis China and the Changing Global Economic Order (July 2022).


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